PITT EXPERT HAS ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS FOR 1998

PITTSBURGH, Jan. 2 -- With current business expansion in its seventh year, economists are wondering whether the business cycle has run its course. How long will this recovery last? What is next for the stock market? Will the Federal Reserve push interest rates higher?

Reuben Slesinger, professor emeritus of economics at the University of Pittsburgh, responds to these questions and more in his annual economic forecast, to be delivered on Sunday, Jan. 4, 1998 at 9:30 a.m. at the Tree of Life Synagogue at Wilkins and Shady Avenues, Squirrel Hill. The presentation is open to the public and includes a free breakfast. A second presentation is scheduled for Jan. 6, 1998 at 6:30 p.m. at a University Club buffet dinner, 123 University Place, Oakland. Reservations are required.

Slesinger, who has presented his forecast annually for more than 30 years, says that 1997 was an exceptionally good year for the economy. He predicts 1998 -- with a more flexible economy -- will be as good, but not as steady.

According to his forecast, "growth has settled into a range of 2 to 2.5 percent. But business cycles -- the economy's tendency to boom and decline -- are caused by the tendency of markets to overshoot. For these business cycles to be tamed, one or two things must happen: the private economy must be more resilient or the managers of fiscal and monetary policy must be smarter."

Slesinger predicts a 1998 gross domestic product, which measures the market value of the nation's output, unemployment and inflation, of $7.338 trillion.