Pitt Faculty Experts Available to Comment on Ramifications of Fidel Castro's Absence from Power

PITTSBURGH—University of Pittsburgh faculty are available to comment on how Fidel Castro's absence from power will impact the Cuban government.

Scott Morgenstern, associate professor of political science, notes that Fidel Castro has survived in office almost 50 years and only recently has a transition of power seemed a serious possibility. While there have been rumors of his failing health, there had been no confirmation until he entered the hospital yesterday for intestinal bleeding.

Morgenstern says that the prospects for a transition from Castro's rule have long been of interest to both the pro- and anti-Castro circles. "In a provocative move, the United States recently set up a Cuban Transition Commission in the State Department," Morgenstern said. This angered the head of the Organization of American States, who responded: "There's no transition, and it's not your country." Although the transition of power to Castro's brother, Raul, is only temporary, Morgenstern said it does, however, awaken interests in the future permanent transition, which could happen in the relatively short term. "Will a new government open up room for political opponents? What role will the Miami Cubans play? How will the new government handle claims by those who lost their homes and businesses in the Castro revolution? The stakes in the transition are tremendous, as is the potential for significant instability," he explained.

Morgenstern's areas of research include Latin American politics, comparative politics, and political institutions. He has published extensively in the area of Latin American politics and is on the faculty of Pitt's Center for Latin American Studies. His most recent book is Patterns of Legislative Politics: Roll Call Voting in the United States and Latin America's Southern Cone (Cambridge University Press, 2003), and recent journal articles by Morgenstern include "Better the Devil You Know Than the Saint You Don't? Risk Propensity and Vote Choice in Mexico," which appeared in 2001 in the Journal of Politics; "Are Politics Local? An Analysis of Voting Patterns in 23 Democracies," published in 2005 in Comparative Political Studies; and "The PRI's Choice: Balancing Democratic Reform and Its Own Salvation," published in 2006 in Party Politics.

Anibal S. Pérez-Liñán, assistant professor of political science and faculty member of the Center for Latin American Studies at Pitt, had the following comment: "In a political regime as highly centralized as Cuba, signals of an ailing ruler immediately trigger rumors and the realignment of factions within the ruling party. Because of this reason, rulers always make an effort to project a healthy image. The fact that the Cuban government decided to announce that Fidel Castro had transferred power to his brother in a way indicated the seriousness of the situation. As a preemptive move, the officials even preferred to acknowledge the president's physical weakness in order to assure the local population that everything was under control."

Pérez-Liñán's research focuses on political stability and institutional performance among Latin American democracies. Born in Argentina, Pérez-Liñán has conducted field research in Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Venezuela. He is currently finishing a book, titled "Presidential Impeachment and the New Political Instability in Latin America" (forthcoming with Cambridge University Press). His most recent articles include "Evaluating Presidential Runoff Elections (Electoral Studies, 2006), "Democratization and Constitutional Crises in Presidential Regimes" (Comparative Political Studies, 2005), and "Strategy, Careers, and Judicial Decisions: Lessons from the Bolivian Courts," with Barry Ames and Mitchell Seligson (Journal of Politics, 2006).

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